More squeezing, follow-up

Following up on this post from last month.

		♠	A 6 5
		♥	7 6 4
		♦	A Q J 9 5 2
		♣	K
♠	Q J 8 7			♠	10 4 3
♥	K J 10 9			♥	8 3 2
♦	8 7 3			♦	10 4
♣	7 6			♣	Q J 10 3 2
		♠	K 9 2
		♥	A Q 5
		♦	K 6
		♣	A 9 8 5 4

Chris showed me this deal. South opens a 14-16 1NT and winds up declaring 6D on a trump lead. What is supposed to happen?

At the table, declarer won in dummy, unblocked clubs, crossed in trumps to ruff a club and drew trumps. East had a problem and discarded a heart. At which point, declarer lost a heart finesse but eventually got home on a double squeeze. Could the defense have done better?

Let's wait on East's pitch, and assume that declarer pitches a spade on the 3rd trump, then crosses in spades to cash and ruff a club (finding out what's happening in that suit) and plays his last trump in this position:

		♠	A 6
		♥	7 4
		♦	2
		♣
		♠	9
		♥	A Q 5
		♦
		♣	9

Note that the H6 has been unblocked.

East must keep a club, so Declarer will pitch his last on the D2. In the 4 card ending, the opponents have 7 major suit cards. Declarer would like to take a marked endplay if possible, or a heart finesse followed by an attempted squeeze (which may have already developed). Say there are only 3 hearts outstanding -- declarer can take the finesse and either win it or establish a long heart (ignoring, for now, the possibility that West kept 3 hearts and East none). If there are 5 hearts (and thus only 2 spades) then declarer might as well play SA, maybe establishing a trick, maybe establishing an endplay, and otherwise playing for the HK (now blank) to be onside. [Note that the defense would prevail if East kept all his spades and declarer played this way -- this requires an immediate heart pitch, though, which did happen but declarer played along different lines.]

If the defense keeps 4 hearts, it's kind of interesting. If they're 2-2, then in practice declarer can't go wrong -- SA and a spade will work, or a losing heart finesse followed by spades splitting will work. So what if East keeps 3 hearts and West stiffs his K? Then the HJT9 will all have been pitched and declarer can play the 6 to the Q. When this loses, a spade will come back, East will show out, and hooking the 5 will be marked. If West keeps 3 hearts, again East had to pitch hearts immediately (to keep a spade guard). Now declarer (if he plays in this counterfactual way) has to guess, but could go right: cash SA, then play a low heart and duck it.

In practice, the key is how likely declarer thinks East is to pitch a heart on the 3rd trump from an original 2=4=2=5.