Names withheld to protect the innocent, part II

This is a followup to yesterday's post here.

Jonathan has the ending analysis correct in the comments. In this position, there's no harm in playing a diamond and then deciding what to do when West plays a low spade.

       A7
       -
       T
       -
?3             ?8
-              -
J              -
-              6
       QT
       -
       7
       -

In practice, RHO discarded the S8 and I played for the endplay, losing the last 2 tricks and going down.

I also concur with Jonathan's statement that East should bare the SK 1/4 of the time when he has it. He wants declarer to be indifferent between SA and S7. Since SA gains 2 tricks when right and S7 gains only 1, the odds declarer should face should be 2:1 against bare SK. A priori West has it 1/3 of the time, so the odds will be 2:1 if East only bares it 1/4 of the 2/3 of the time he's dealt it (recall that spades were 2=4).

Similarly, declarer should aim to make East indifferent between baring and not baring when he has the K. Baring risks a trick to gain a trick, so indifference is achieved if declarer goes up 50% of the time.

Of course, this analysis is for each side maximizing their expected trick taking. I think maximizing boards (or matchpoints) might lead to a slightly different optimal strategy. Perhaps I'll revisit. UPDATE: In fact it does. See next post

Also, if East knew he was working on a book, he may have had an extra incentive to bare the K. As Jonathan said (suggesting experts might prefer flashiness), this should make declarer go up more often.


In fact, this deal was written up in "The Master Reveals His Secrets, Helgemo's World of Bridge" (Review: never actually read the book, but Tim said it was good.) I was simply referred to as "declarer". A copy is below the fold...

        A742
        AQ75
        T82
        QT
J3               K865
9842             63
KQJ653           9
8                A65432
        QT9
        KJT
        A74
        KJ97

"On the next deal, where Three No-Trumps was the contract around the room, we shall see Tony and Geir cooperating well to push declarer over the edge. Both needed to be on the ball to succeed.

"Since the club ace was not with the diamond length, the contract was safe. Like every other West, Tony Forrester led the king of diamonds which declarer allowed to hold the trick. The next diamond was taken by declarer's ace as East pitched a club. South now played on clubs and Geir
let him make the first two tricks, but took the third one and cleared the suit. He had thus established a trick for himself in the suit, but apparently in vain because declarer had nine top tricks.

"It is hard to see how the defenders could give declarer a problem here. However, Forrester's creativity turned a dull board into a nightmare for declarer. West had to make three discards on the clubs and he let go his three little diamonds. Four hearts tricks followed and Geir discarded two spades. This was the position:

       A7
       -
       T
       -
J3             K8
-              -
J              -
-              6
       QT
       -
       7
       -

"Declarer call for the ten of diamonds from dummy. He had endplayed Forrester, who was known to have only one diamond left, to lead a spade. This could not have happened had Forrester not discarded so many diamonds. If the jack and king of spades were interchanged, South would have been his team's hero on this deal. But he was soon disappointed.

"Geir had not fallen asleep, and he understood what Tony was up to. On the ten of diamonds Geir discarded the eight of spades. Forrester now had to play a spade, and declarer called for dummy's seven. So East took the last two tricks with his now bare king of spades and a club. Dummy's ace of spades never took a trick, and this magic one down gave the Shugart team
the point for the board."