Another NY Times compound

This deal is from a recent NY Times column:

(When I checked, the full deal appeared wrong, but the end position was right. Some spots in the full deal may be misplaced in my diagrams):

		♠	A 6 4 2
		♥	Q 10 5 4
		♦	K Q 10 8 4
		♣
		♠	K 9
		♥	A J 8
		♦	A 6 2
		♣	A K Q J 4

Trying for a BAM win, you land in 7N. At the table, declarer ran some diamonds and some clubs, discovered RHO had a club guard, unblocked the HQ and came down to:

		♠	A 6
		♥	10
		♦	8
		♣
		♠	9
		♥	A J
		♦
		♣	4

Declarer played a spade to the Ace and when RHO showed out he was able to play it as a double squeeze: cash the last diamond forcing East down to 1 heart, pitch the last club, and now West is also down to 1 heart.

This is pretty enough, but is not really any better than the heart finesse or stiff K with West. If West had had the HK, East would not unguard spades and expose West to the major suit squeeze.

Could declarer have done better? ...


In practice, I don't think so. But in theory, if he knew early enough that East had the club guard (for example if West shows out on the 3rd round), then I think a different line of play would be better. Details below the fold.




I think declarer wants to reach this position with the lead in the North hand:

		♠	A 6 4
		♥	10 5
		♦	8
		♣
		♠	K 9
		♥	A J
		♦
		♣	J 4

By not cashing the 4th club winner (impractical single dummy if both follow to the first 3) there's room for an extra heart with North. This will also require a spade entry to South in some variations. Presuming RHO still has a club guard, that only leaves room for 4 major suit cards, thus he can no longer guard both majors. If you judge that hearts have been unguarded, cash the last diamond pitching a heart, HA, CJ for a double squeeze around spades. If spades are unguarded, SK, CJ (pitching a heart), SA, diamond for a double squeeze around hearts.

This is an alternate threat compound. Cashing the CJ too early wrecks it by squeezing North.

What about the odds? Say RHO shows up with 6 clubs and 2 diamonds. He's going to pitch 1 club and 1 major before you make your decision and you should play for the major he pitches to be unguarded. The layout where you rate to go down is when he's 4=1 or 5=0 in the majors and pitches a spade, which happens about 19% of the time by my math (less a couple percent for stiff HK). Or, if he's 2=3 in the majors and pitches a heart, another 32% or so. So, in fact, this is a virtual toss up compared to the finesse.

On the other hand, there's some scope for misdefending on the compound line. I think, though, that restricted compounds rate to be hard to read in general and not much better than finesses. Of course, if you don't have those nice middle heart honors, the compound is still about 50% and there's no other line.

How could this be unrestricted, allowing you to cash an extra diamond before committing to deciding which major East has unguarded? A good start would be to move the SK to North (and a small spot to South). Now you don't need that 2nd heart in dummy, can cash all the clubs and then finish diamonds coming down to:

		♠	A K 4
		♥	10
		♦
		♣
		♠	9
		♥	A J
		♦
		♣	4

Now you'll have seen 2 major suit pitches from East. If he pitches 2 from the same major, you only lose to 5=0 or 1=4, both very unlikely. If he pitches 1 from each, you have to guess whether he was 4=1 to begin with or 2=3. You'll guess the latter, and wind up making something like 80% of the time.